It feels good to be back here. A *big* goal of mine for 2021 is to get this website back off the ground and make it actually useful (plus with the uncertainty of where social media is heading, I like having complete control over at least some aspect of what we do, which ownership of this website provides me — so take that, @Jacks and Zuckerburgs of the world!).

Anyway, let’s talk weather.

We’re beginning our Sunday with waves of light showers moving in. These look to come and go throughout the day — enough to probably ruin the $13 car wash I invested in yesterday, but who’s really keeping score? (I also haven’t washed my vehicle since early October, I think. It was well past time.)

The HRRR model below illustrates how radar may look as we go through the day.

We will see breaks at times, but do expect light rain off and on from probably around the time you’re getting to church up until you go to bed.

Highs today will span the upper 40s to lower 50s, depending on where you are located (cooler on the Plateau, milder *not* on the Plateau…you know who and where you are — I hope, at least).

Much heavier and more persistent rain looks to take over late tonight through early-mid Monday morning, making for good sleeping conditions. A rumble of thunder or two (or three or four or more) can’t be ruled out, but we’re not expecting any severe worries while we sleep.

Once again, we look to the HRRR model to illustrate this:

Exact placement of the heaviest, most persistent rain bands is still a bit uncertain, but there is a fair bit of confidence that we will see a good amount of rain overnight — at least a half inch or more.

Temperatures won’t fall much at all overnight — only expecting lows in the lower to middle 40s.

WPC projects we’ll see around an inch or so of rainfall in all over the course of the next 48 hours. Isolated pockets of heavier rainfall amounts are possible. That said, flash flood worries are low.

For those who like maps, here’s that 48 hour graphic straight from the Weather Prediction Center:

…and now here is where the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain.

The driver behind tonight’s rainfall is a warm front that will be lifting from south to north across the region — hence why we won’t see much of a drop in temperatures.

In fact, temperatures will likely begin climbing before we even reach sunrise Monday morning with winds picking up from out of the south.

The passage of the warm front to our north won’t spell the end of the rain for the day. A cold front won’t be far behind that will sweep through from west to east late in the day.

It’s the in-between stuff that isn’t certain. I’ll try to better explain this with a couple of scenarios below.

Scenario 1 (most likely): Light rain persists off and on for much of the day with clouds lingering overhead. Temperatures rise into the 60s, but we just can’t quite get the instability needed for severe storm development as the cold front moves through late in the day. A strong storm or two with gusty winds is possible, but the chance of anything getting too out of hand is quite low. The cold front moves through, and all is well with the world again.

Scenario 2: Once the warm front lifts north of us by late Monday morning, we dry out. Few to no showers are present for much of the day, and we maybe see clouds thin out some, allowing a few rays of sunshine to poke through. Temperatures easily climb into the 60s, maybe even pushing 70 in some spots, and the atmosphere becomes a bit juicy. Instability still might not be great due to other necessary parameters just not really being there, but there’s just enough fuel for the cold front to work with that a healthy line of thunderstorms knocks on our door at some point late in the day or early evening. Some of those cells could have the potential to become severe — damaging, straight-line winds being the primary (but still probably on the lower side) threat. An isolated tornado is not completely out of the question, although the threat is really low. The cold front passes (along with the squall line), and all is well with the world again.

Scenario 3: Some combination of Scenarios 1 & 2.

Right now, Scenario 1 seems most probable, and the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 2 Outlook kind of goes along with this:

SPC only has us in the ‘general thunderstorm’ category for Monday — keeping the Marginal severe weather risk well off to our west, primarily focused on Arkansas and parts of Texas, Louisiana and far western West Tennessee.

Don’t be surprised to hear thunder Monday, especially with the round of possible storms along the late-day cold front.

Now that you have that information in front of you, it’s time for a bit of a disclaimer.

We’ve been very blessed to not have to deal with, much less even worry about, severe weather for quite a long while. In fact, I can’t really remember the last time we were outlooked for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center — maybe once in the past few months? It’s not been often, and I’ve quite enjoyed the break.

That being said, severe weather is a very normal thing for this area. We have at least a couple dozen or more days each year where severe weather is a possibility, and especially after March 3rd last year, I don’t blame anyone for being on-edge anytime thunderstorms are in question, even something as benign as a general summer storm.

My goal here is to inform you and hopefully quell those fears as much as possible. It’s inevitable that we will have several severe weather days this year. Tomorrow probably won’t be among those (at least no where near the worst or even close), but those days will come, and when they do, Upper Cumberland Weather will be here. And because we’re certainly not in this alone, you should also consult with multiple other reliable weather sources often — the National Weather Service office in Nashville/their social media, your favorite local TV meteorologists, etc. Stay well-informed, and we’ll get through every storm that comes our way this year.

/end disclaimer

We’ll clear out behind the cold front with sunny skies expected Tuesday (my birthday!) and mild highs in the upper 50s to near 60. (Fun fact: it’s almost never snowed in all my 27 birthdays, despite being in a statistically probable time of year to see snow….but I’ll gladly accept a mild and sunny day!)